More news today; at least this isn't the kind of disease where you have to wait six months to find out what your condition is.
New bloodwork today shows my platelets up to 78K on just 7.5 mg/day of Pred. It was 97K in England, but dropped to 55K after I reduced my Pred dose, but has now rebounded for the second time. I am going down to 5 mg starting today and we'll see what happens next week.
To answer Sandi's question as whether I'm going to have a splenectomy, that will depend on what kind of a remission I continue to receive from Rituxin. If I can get off Prednisone entirely in a few weeks and have platelets in desirable range (I'm not complaining about 78K for example), then I will hold off on the splenectomy as you might imagine. I may consider a 'booster' of Rituxin along the lines of "If a little is good, more must be better", which I know is usually only true for sex, drugs and alcohol, but hey, Rituxin is a drug, right?
All kidding aside, my local Hema says this is a sound theory if managed correctly, but I will also check with my Hema at Hopkins to make sure he concurs. I'd ask if he agrees, but as a doctor he can only concur.
Moving on- we arrived at the 87% probability of success through some statistical math. I have a journalism degree (go figure) so I had nothing to do with the math. A friend of mine with accounting and economics degrees did the sums.
We based this on a 65% native success rate for splenectomies in general when the location of the platelet destruction is not known, and a 25% probability of the platelet destruction being localized in the liver in the general population of ITP sufferers (sufferers? Is that what we are?).
I'm not going to try to explain the math any more than I would try to do it, but my friend arrived at something like an 86.8% probability of a successful outcome (up from 65%).
This in no way defines successful; it simply increases the likelihood of whatever a successful outcome is by eliminating the one-in-four chance of certain failure.
I am familiar with the knock on the Indium test that it can only predict failure, not success, but this isn't mathematically correct. It cannot predict success, but by screening out a very high proportion of those splenectomies that are certain to fail, the probability of success certainly rises.
To use an analogy, if you wanted to determine how many first graders would eventually graduate high school, the Indium test would essentially tell you how many were certain to drop out of school before graduation. The remaining students would be those that would graduate (success) and those that would stay in school but fail to graduate (failure). By removing the dropouts from the equation ahead of time, you are dramatically increasing the probability that any one of the remaining students will graduate. So I can't do math, but I have a black belt in analogies.
To answer Ann, as to whether I understand all of the other data on my Indium test report, the short answer is no, I don't.
I do understand the short half-life of my platelets, which is what defines ITP, but the other numbers are Greek to me (probably not accurate considering how poorly the Greeks seem to be handling numbers these days) but I figured I'd let Dr. House at Hopkins explain in to me next month.
Last, I have a question for everyone and I'd appreciate hearing what anyone has to say:
When it became apparent that Rituxin was working for me at some level, I asked my local Hema if there was any clinical significance between people for whom Rituxin works and for those it fails to work for.
He thought about it, and suggested that it could mean that for people who receive benefit from Rituxin, their ITP is secondary to another autoimmune condition, whereas people who fail to see benefit may have ITP as a primary condition. He was just theorizing based on how he interprets Rituxin to function in the body, so this isn't a concrete assertion, but just a guess.
My question then is, does anyone have any thoughts or experience with this? Has Rituxin worked for you and if so, were you ever determined to have another primary autoimmune condition? Has anyone ever suggested this theory to you?
Obviously I ask because, while I am grateful to receive benefit from Rituxin, it obviously makes me a little uneasy to think it may be because I have some as-yet undiagnosed autoimmune issue and I'm curious to see what other's experiences have been.
Best Regards and thanks for reading,
KO